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The Iraq of Tomorrow

I’ve been thinking this thing for a couple of years now. The problem is, I now see it as a distinct possibility. Here’s how it goes. Iraqi leadership cracks down brutally in the name of security. Factions deepen within the fragile democratic government. Eventually a dominant faction emerges and seizes power. With support of the Iraqi military and the tacit support of a fatigued American presence and leadership (who voices concerns, but does nothing to stop the chain of events) the leader of this faction assumes what amount to dictatorial powers.

This leader condemns terrorism and plays lip service to democratic principles. As privately as possible, he aligns himself with the United States, who as privately as possible funds and supports his leadership. The debate in this country is minimal. Under Saddam-style leadership, Iraq is ‘stabilizing’ and troops start to come home in large numbers. Democrats and Republicans declare victory. The left, shuddering to agree with the neo-con idea of Middle East democratization can’t help but ask what it was all for. The Weekly Standard begins publishing essays on the inability of “Islamic Culture” to function under a democratic system. Everyone else soon forgets.

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